Broker Check

Weekly Market Watch

November 30, 2022



  • Mid-Week Outlook
  • Key Market Levels
  • This Week / What We Are Watching

Outlook:

The S&P’s Q4 rally is taking a pause this week as investors re-evaluate the state of the markets following the +14% rally off the October 2022 lows. After this week, there are just 19 trading days left in 2022. On the economic front, data picks up in the latter half of this week with the release of the ISM manufacturing index, and Friday’s big nonfarm payroll report.

Last week in light holiday trading, stocks climbed as investors grew more hopeful of a slowdown in the future Fed funds rate. The release of the minutes from the early November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) fed investors' optimism. Fed officials suggested the slowing of hikes may be coming soon. Investor sentiment was also lifted by unexpectedly strong retailer earnings, upside surprises in new economic data, and a better-than-expected consumer sentiment reading.

The WSJ is reporting that holiday spending data is coming in okay despite inflation and the risks of recession. Store traffic rose 7% this Black Friday compared with last, said RetailNext, a firm that tracks shopper counts in thousands of stores with cameras and sensors. In-store sales rose 0.1%, and the average shopper spent less per visit than last year, according to the firm. Sensormatic Solutions, another firm that analyzes store traffic, said Black Friday traffic rose 2.9% compared with 2021.

Sales on Black Friday rose 12% from last year, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment. The report excludes auto sales and isn’t adjusted for inflation, meaning that it could reflect people paying higher prices for goods than they did in 2021 (source wsj.com; 11/27/22).


Market Support Levels:

The next level of resistance to watch for the S&P 500 on the upside is the 200-day moving average line at 4,065.

The next levels of support to watch for the S&P 500 on the downside are at around 3,900, followed by 3,500.

Recall these are key technical levels we look for the market to either hold or push through when look at the potential for future moves. Common support levels can be the 50- and 200-day moving averages as well as other technical levels such as previous market highs or lows.

What we are Watching:

The following economic data is slated to be released during the week ahead:

Monday: ---

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence (Nov.), S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Sept.)

Wednesday:  Q3 GDP (Revised), JOLTS Job Openings (Oct.), pending home sales (Oct.).

Thursday: Weekly initial unemployment claims, PCE deflator (Oct.), ISM Manufacturing (Nov.)

Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov.)


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Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.